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I have to say it is staggering to hear Ben Bernake speak on 60 minutes. Having issues the most debt in the history of the world and knocking our currency down to one wobbly leg (ie see GOLD ATMs machines) he openly declares that he will print as much money as need be IN THE FUTURE. He is giving a full 100% endorsement to more quantitive easying and doesn’t even blink an eye.
This is the age old debate among active and passive investors. For those that don’t know what “funds vs. stocks” means, it is asking, “is it better to own individual stocks or just buy a fund and let the manager decided what to buy”.
The answer, well, it depends on how active you are in investing. As you can probably realize, the fund manager does not work for free, in fact, they earn a very good living based on how much money they manage. So who pays the managers? The long and short of it, is that you do. Those are those fees and fee schedules you see on the mutal fund prospectus.
If you are willing to put your own time and research in, you can do exactly what the fund manager does, and that is pick stocks. The best part is, every 90 days, the fund has to publish it’s top 10 holding so you can see what the fund manager likes, and doesn’t like. Most funds don’t trade stocks like individuals, so whatever their top 10 holding are 90 days ago, 8 or 9 will be the same this time around.
Another area affecting your decision in “funds vs. stocks” is your personality. Some people just don’t like to manage their investments and would rather pay a professional to do it. So, it is up to you. How much time can you spend managing your investments? Do you have the stomach for the market’s twists and turns?
The fees on funds tend to run higher than ETF’s and ETF’s can get you almost the same returns and diversification that mutal funds can get you.
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The market is healing and no one is noticing…Remember, watch what people are doing, not what they are saying.
1. Goldman Sachs is dying to pay back $10 billion in TARP money, they would do it today because they could be out there making a killing if it weren’t for TARP restrictions.
2. Morgan Stanley announced on 2/10 that they want to repay TARP funds as well.
3. Barclays had a great quarter and reiterated they don’t want UK bailout money.
4. Ken Lewis of BAC claims they don’t want any more TARP money, but the jury may still be out on this one. Plus, he has taken his own money and bought over $1million worth of BAC stock recently.
5. Jamie Diamond at JP Morgan laughs at all the talk of nationalizing banks and says they are doing fine and lending money out everyday.
6. Libor has fallen to very reasonable rates, meaning banks are lending money to each other at a pretty reasonable and doable rate
7. Corporate bond insurance, or credit default swaps, have dropped at a staggering rate over the past 6 weeks, meaning the threat of default on quality companies’ debt is view as very minimal.
8. Junk bond yields, although still attractive, are plummeting as investors pour into certain sectors chasing yield.
9. The Bad Bank idea seems to have taken a backseat as it might not be as “needed” as some though, now government partnerships and handshakes seem to be all that might be needed to get over the credit freeze hump.
10. Goldman Sachs and others have estimated the true number to get this mess in the rear view mirror is $4 trillion and guess what? The market moved 20 points. What else can be thrown at this market to drive it to Dow 6000 if we assume $4 trillion of debt and 12% unemployment? Seriously, leave a comment and let me know what scenario can shock the market down to 6000? I am not saying we won’t test 7500 or even 7000 again, but overall, I don’t see what can put us to some of the Dow 5000 or 6000 pundits out there.
11. After seeing Tim Geithner’s speech yesterday, as shallow and empty as it was, I have to say it proves my point. The Obama administration comes out with the turkey, and yet the market can’t be driven down past 7850.
Really?? What else can they do to mess this up?
It reminds me of Brewsters Millions with Richard Prior, it’s like they are trying to get the Dow to 5000 and just can’t do it.
1. Oil - What does a oil price rise do to the beaten up consumer? Around where I live the price has risen from $1.96 to $2.49 and this is during a recession when everyone is cutting back. I know that the weakness in the dollar isn’t helping to bring oil down, but what if oil spikes and we get gas at $3.75 to $4.25 again? I seem to remember lots of reports tell us “XXX billions are being put back in the consumers wallet” as gas fell from $4 a gallon to $2, so isn’t the inverse true? Isn’t this a new tax the consumer “has” to pay in order to function?
2. The 10 year - Starting to spike, this is unbelievably bad news for Mr. Bernanke and the “green shoots” in the housing market. If you had people starting to dip their toes in the real estate water when rates were around 4.5% to 4.75%, they are going to run for the hill if we start seeing 5.25 to 5.75%. Their goes your curious buyers…
3. The Treasury Auctions - The government bond market is on a roller coaster right now, at historic highs and then whipsawed back. If China and other central banks only want to be in 2 year and 5 year debt, who wants the 7 year? I guess we will find out today. If the yield spikes on the 7 year in order to get buyers, what the *@#@$%! is it going to do to the 30 year. How bad will budget projections be off if their “assumed interest rates of debt” are off by 2%? Wow.
4. Obama and the Unions - I don’t want to start a political fight here and I know Obama is a very emotional figure for some, but his kowtowing to the unions is getting ridiculous. You are suppose to start running for re-election 2 years before you are up, so it would be 2010 for Obama. He needs the union vote for re-election, well, let me re-phrase that, he might not actually NEED the union vote, but he really, really would like to lock it up. He is just handing concessions over to the UAW and other unions are a blistering and ethically questionable pace.
5. States want Federal Guarantees - The state of California want a Federal guarantee on its debt issuing in the future. What happens when 49 other states want that? Now the Federal government will have to guarantee the munibond market? This can’t be done, we don’t have enough high speed money printing presses to even do this if we wanted to.
6. Year over Year Taxes Collected Down 34%. - What does this do local and state workers? Absolutely crushes them. How many more program cuts and layoffs will have to happen when over 1/3 of your projected revenue is gone. Talk about a nice stream of people hitting the unemployment office and losing their benefits, this will be ugly. Not to mention the “spike’ in Federal hiring has a lot to do with census hiring and they are only temporary jobs.
The more I think about this mess, the more depressing it gets. The story we are suppose to believe is that we can transfer our personal debt from our Mastercard and Visa bills to the government (ie lower private and consumer debt, skyrocketing government debt) and all is well? So I will work hard to lower my Visa and Mastercard bill, and then pay out the savings, plus more, when my taxes are due? Huh?
This is classic “robbing Peter to pay Paul” scenario. It can’t work, it is a shell game right out of the streets of NYC. You can’t get out of debt by just printing more money and paying the bills. Every action has a consequence and you can bet your bottom dollar (if you still have one, it is only worth $.58 now) that these chickens will come home to roost someday. We are just putting off the inevitable day of reckoning. If we just had a Time Machine to tell us when this would happen, we would all be billionaires.
Now, do I want to sound like Jim Rogers and move my family to China and start teaching my kids Chinese? No, but he is right about (paraphrasing) “No society in the history of the world has ever gotten out of recession by printing more and more money and devaluing their currency. Weakening a nations currency HAS NEVER worked out in the long term in helping that nation”.
No one knows for sure what will happen and it what time period. We can all only make educated guesses, sometime we are right, sometimes we are wrong. I just don’t like the macro-level look at what our economy, currency, and taxes are doing right now and what is says about our future.
Home prices plunge almost 20%
accelerated during the first three months of 2009, according to a report issued Tuesday.
The S&P Case-Shiller National Home Price index, a bellwether of real-estate market direction, plunged a record 19.1% during the quarter compared with the first three months of 2008. That followed an 18.2% drop last quarter.
The Case-Shiller 20-city index dropped 18.7% year-over-year, also a record. It fell 18.5% during the last three months of 2008. This index has plummeted 32.2% from its July 2006 peak and has fallen 32 straight months.
The national index covers almost all homes sold throughout the United States and is reported quarterly while the 20-city index reports sales in 20 major metro areas and represents a cross section of the national market. The 20-city index comes out every month.
“Declines in residential real estate continued at a steady pace into March,” said David Blitzer, chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s in a prepared statement. “All 20 metro areas are still showing negative annual rates of change in average home prices with nine of the metro areas having record annual declines.”
Unreal..how can it fall 18.5% last year, so you lost almost 20% of your home value, and then fall ANOTHER 20% to start this year? So if your home was worth $100, it was then worth $73.50 during the free fall, and now it is worth $58.80??
How can you refinance? There is no equity left, completely wiped out 10 years worth of “your home value will go up 5-8% a year”…
The loss of real estate value is breathtaking when you consider all the loans and equity people took out of their homes for other purposes…it will be a domino effect of massive loan losses at banks.
As you know I am a bear, I am scared now. I think we will retest and break through the lows of the last stock market dive. No one knows for sure, we can only make educated guesses and see what happens…
1. There isn’t enough printed money in the world to cover all the debt being issued for bailouts…ie. We don’t have enough money to pay for this mess on the planet now
2. There has never been a recession that you can just spend your way out of and take on huge debt..this is just what the US consumer did to get to this point, now the government, which is a representation of us, is doing the same.
3. Printing money at these levels will eventually lead massive dilution of the dollar. This will either cause the dollar to become a laughing stock of a currency and/or no longer the safe haven for the world
4. Our debt becomes less appealing with each passing day the printing presses work overtime
5. Real estate has yet to find a bottom (see above)
6. Commercial real estate is the next big problems for banks, followed by consumer loans such as credit cards and car loans.
7. Prime mortgages are starting to default at a staggering pace (see recent WSJ article), these are people with good credit and normal loans.
8. Unemployment, no matter who’s number you believe is, is going up from its already high numbers…see “mass layoffs” article by Tyler Durden
9. Corporate earnings are going to get squashed with a shrinking consumer, making this rally technically unsustainable.
10. North Korea is getting ready to start a Pacific Rim war, not great for news for the emerging markets as well as Japan.
Just my two cents, Dow 6500 in the next 6 months….
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