Earn Quick Money through Forex Trading and Consolidate your Bills
If you re overwhelmed with debt, then you should opt for debt relief programs such as debt management, bill consolidation, credit consolidation, and etc. There are various firms in the market that offer debt relief programs. These firms have expert professionals who help you to reduce your debt burden. However, these firms are not here for social service or for charity. They are here for business and they charge a substantial amount of money as fee.
These firms don’t pay your creditors from their own pockets. They help you in paying back your outstanding bills. This means that not only you have to pay back your outstanding bills but also have to pay these firms. In one word, you need to earn money quickly which is not at all an easy task. The simplest way to earn quick cash is through forex trading.
Forex trading
The popularity of forex trading is booming. Earlier people used to invest only in stocks and shares. But that scenario has changed. People are earning huge profits through forex trading. Thereby the debtors can afford to pay the fees of the bill consolidation firms as well as can pay back the creditors.
Forex market is open for 24 hours. It is claimed that it is the most liquid market in the world. This means that the traders can trade at any time. In a forex market people trade currencies. For example: You know that the currency of US is dollar (USD) where as the currency of Europe is Euro (EUR). In forex trading you buy a US dollar and sell a Euro simultaneously. Just like in share trading, you don’t require a huge amount of money to trade in a forex market.
Normally, you can do forex trading through a market broker. But as lot of scams is happening nowadays, therefore, you should choose your broker carefully. It is advisable to choose a broker who works for a reputed firm or you may loose a lot of money.
It is important to earn as much money as possible when you overwhelmed with debt so that you can pay the fees of the bill consolidation firms as well as can pay back your outstanding bills. Forex trading helps you to earn quick cash and reduce your debts.
The market is healing and no one is noticing…Remember, watch what people are doing, not what they are saying.
1. Goldman Sachs is dying to pay back $10 billion in TARP money, they would do it today because they could be out there making a killing if it weren’t for TARP restrictions.
2. Morgan Stanley announced on 2/10 that they want to repay TARP funds as well.
3. Barclays had a great quarter and reiterated they don’t want UK bailout money.
4. Ken Lewis of BAC claims they don’t want any more TARP money, but the jury may still be out on this one. Plus, he has taken his own money and bought over $1million worth of BAC stock recently.
5. Jamie Diamond at JP Morgan laughs at all the talk of nationalizing banks and says they are doing fine and lending money out everyday.
6. Libor has fallen to very reasonable rates, meaning banks are lending money to each other at a pretty reasonable and doable rate
7. Corporate bond insurance, or credit default swaps, have dropped at a staggering rate over the past 6 weeks, meaning the threat of default on quality companies’ debt is view as very minimal.
8. Junk bond yields, although still attractive, are plummeting as investors pour into certain sectors chasing yield.
9. The Bad Bank idea seems to have taken a backseat as it might not be as “needed” as some though, now government partnerships and handshakes seem to be all that might be needed to get over the credit freeze hump.
10. Goldman Sachs and others have estimated the true number to get this mess in the rear view mirror is $4 trillion and guess what? The market moved 20 points. What else can be thrown at this market to drive it to Dow 6000 if we assume $4 trillion of debt and 12% unemployment? Seriously, leave a comment and let me know what scenario can shock the market down to 6000? I am not saying we won’t test 7500 or even 7000 again, but overall, I don’t see what can put us to some of the Dow 5000 or 6000 pundits out there.
Just added
11. After seeing Tim Geithner’s speech yesterday, as shallow and empty as it was, I have to say it proves my point. The Obama administration comes out with the turkey, and yet the market can’t be driven down past 7850.
Really?? What else can they do to mess this up?
It reminds me of Brewsters Millions with Richard Prior, it’s like they are trying to get the Dow to 5000 and just can’t do it.
The Wall Street Journal Recenlty ran an article on Konkatsu, the new Japanese dating style. Here at the StockMarketSage and with help of the www.TheInternetTimeMachine.com we were ahead of the curve..read below.
It was interesting the other day to see a Bloomberg article entitled Japanese Women Hunt for Husbands as Refuge from Deeping Slump
that has an uncanny accuracy of actually predicting the future, or at least, “soon to be hot topics and niches”. One update from the Time Machine that I got a few months ago showed a surge in search terms in Japanese for phrases like “how to find a husband” and “single men to marry”, yet search results were staying stagnant or not keeping up with the new demand. They recommended an ebook in Japanese as a niche way to make money on this surge while no one was noticing.
I was curious to see if this was real developing cultural shift or if it was a blip on the screen in this massive recession. I tracked down Chris Demetrakos, an advertising executive who is single and has been living in Japan for over 15 years. He and his friends advise other single men on dating culture and cultural norms of Japanese Society.
SMS: So Chris, I understand this article fired you up?
Are you kidding? “I am in need of money, so I think I’ll find a guy to support me.” Look at the title:
“…seek husbands as shelter from deepening economic slump…”
The second paragraph:
“I want to get married soon, hopefully by the end of this year,” said Iwate, a 36-year-old employee at a mail-order retailer in Tokyo. “The recession made me realize I’m not going to make as much money as I expected, and I’d be more stable financially if I had double income to fall back on.”23 Paces to Baker Street videoLove Object movie download
When was the last time you thought to yourself, “Gee, I’d like to be married by the end of this year to someone wealthy so I won’t have to work”?
SMS: Do you encounter this type of woman frequently?
CD: I have this conversation all the time, and it always ends the same. A female friend called me up a while back and asked me to join her and two other friends. I asked the one sitting in the middle, call her Yoko, about herself. After the usual banter, she said, “I want to find a husband.” Here it comes, I thought.
“Ok, so what kind of guy are you hoping to meet?”
She said, “I want to meet a rich guy, someone who has a lot of money,” and laughed a little uncomfortably.
I read an article about some love guru woman named Leil Lowndes who talks about “equity” as it pertains to relationships. The stereotypical buxom-blonde-meets-70-year-old-uber-rich-guy is the quintessential example. Each party brings something the other desires to the relationship, so the “transaction” ends up being somewhat equal. In the case of the gentlemen, he gets the ultra sexy trophy wife/girlfriend; and for the lady, she gets access to his pile of money. However, as I sat there and listened to Yoko prattle on about wanting to be with a rich guy, I wondered exactly what it was she would be bringing to the table for her future Mr. Wallet. Here comes that mindset of female-as-prize, or I have the vagina, so that’s my contribution and it automatically qualifies me. That may have worked in the past, but welcome to the New Economy.
I said, “Ok, so a banker or trader would be ideal, right?”
“Yes, someone like that would be great!” she responded, thinking maybe I was considering an introduction.
“So, as long as he’s a nice guy, you don’t really care what he’s like as long as he’s rich?”
“Yes, that’s right,” she said.
I switched gears. I said, “There’s a guy I know who loves stewardesses. He said he wants to marry one because he loves the uniform, and thinks it’s the sexiest thing ever. I asked him what he would do if he married a stewardess and she quit her job, relinquishing her uniform. He said that he would divorce her.” There were moans and jeers all around the table. They called him shallow and said they couldn’t believe such a guy exists. Table set, here comes the beef. I said, “What you’re saying isn’t much different from that guy. What if I had introduced you to my friend at Lehman Brothers a year ago? You would have done back flips about the prospect of spending his fat trader salary, and life would have been great for a few months, but then the global meltdown happened and the rug got pulled out from under the dream. What then? Now he is a salaryman, making a standard wage simply because that’s all that’s out there for him. And you know what? Since you did not marry for love, since you married for money, for convenience, you are left wondering what is in it for you. Maybe you’re thinking about divorce. Sound any different from the stewardess-lover? Nope.”
Silence. She had a look on her face like none of this had ever occurred to her.
SMS: How did this female-as-prize mindset come about?
CD: I think it happened during the bubble. There was cash growing on trees back then, and it was the era of girls dancing sans panties on the platforms at Juliana’s Tokyo. Fat city. Generally speaking, it was a seller’s market at that time, and it became customary for women to expect men to proffer up the good times and spoils if women were to accede to any post-date activity. Today, we’re dealing with the daughters of these women, young ladies who were socialized by those in this mindset.
There is a young woman who lives in the same building as I do. I met her for the first time a few years ago when she was still in high school, and now she is 19 and in college. She speaks three languages, is refreshingly peppy and internationally minded. She said she wanted to talk to me about university and her future to get a different perspective from what she is being told by all her Japanese advisors. We ended up going out to eat sushi, and she said, “My mom said to make sure that you are paying and told me to eat a lot.”
“Excuse me?!” I said.
“Yeah, mom said to eat a lot since you are paying.”
“Are you kidding me? Your mom needs a lesson in manners,” I said.
But the more I thought about it, I realized that this girl who was born in 1989–right at the end of the bubble era. Her mom was part of a group that was accustomed to milking guys for gorgeous nights out, lavish experiences, for material goods, and they used sex as a carrot, a bargaining chip. Now those women are teaching their daughters what they know and it’s completely anachronistic. The world changed under their noses while they were raising their kids.
SMS: Aren’t these women more an exception than the rule?
CD: That’s a good question. I am reluctant to even venture a guess at a percentage, but given Bloomberg is writing about them, and these marriage agencies are posting big numbers, they obviously exist in significant numbers. I run into them all the time. But you’re right, they are only a certain group, and do not account for the whole. I know some very hip, very cultured women. Most of them have spent time overseas, though. As I mentioned, I am in the ad industry, and pretty much everything we do sits on some kind of consumer insight study. My curiosity is piqued about this group of women the Bloomberg article talks about.
SMS: What else about the article struck a chord with you?
CD: Well, let’s take a look.
“Financial concerns are a major reason for the increase in marriage-hunting,” said Toshihiro Nagahama, chief economist at Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute in Tokyo. “Women are motivated more than ever to find a financially sound partner.”
Ever wonder what it is men are “motivated more than ever” to find? Another sound bite I hear a lot is that men are basically animals, and they are “only after one thing.” That makes life really easy, doesn’t it? If men are sex-crazed, base, overtime-working animals, then the equation is simple: keep them well fed above and below the belt, and all will be well. But it doesn’t happen that way. Have you seen that study about frequency of sex in various countries around the world?
SMS: Heard of it, yes.
CD: Durex, the condom company, did the survey, I believe it was in 2003. Greek people were sharing the love and the body fluids the most at something like 115 times per year, while the Japanese came last (no pun intended…perhaps) at 37 times per year. That is an average, so half the people are below that figure. I believe the DSM-IV defines a couple as “sexless” at a frequency of twice a month, or 24 times per year, so “sexless” is only a hair south of the national average.
If sex is so infrequent, what happened to the animal theory? I guess that went out the window.
“I know women before my generation worked so hard and pursued their careers so they could prove they’re just as good as men,” said Reiko Kubo, 25, who bought a good-luck charm at Tokyo Daijingu shrine. “They didn’t have to depend on men and that’s cool, but it’s not the path I want to follow.” Tommy and the Cool Mule divx
So in other words, “I want to depend on a man.” My question for Reiko Kubo is, “Why on earth would marry a guy just so you can depend on him? What happened to falling in love? What happens when you have to communicate and solve problems together and think about pursuing dreams? Do you have any dreams, Reiko?” Maybe I’m old fashioned. It seems absolutely insane to marry someone for practicality, and feel nothing. Think that might have something to do with the results of the sex survey?
SMS: Are some women thinking that marriage will make them happy?
CD: EXACTLY!
I was at Starbucks recently with a friend who was enthralled in a game on my phone, so I was left to endure the conversation that was happening to my right. Across from me was the married one. Next to me was the single one. Married was talking a mile a minute, spewing forth the same old hackneyed lines about how marriage changes everything, and there is no other choice but to suck it up and accept it. Single nodded in forlorn, unchallenging acceptance of every word. Married mentioned the dreaded one-year mark, when the big changes occur. Single agreed, “Yes, yes, you’re right. I have been with my boyfriend for one year now, and the love-love-talk has stopped.” She pouted.
Married: “You have to give up stimulation in favor of stability.”
Single: “Yes, I think I would much rather have stability, but I’m bored in the relationship. I don’t really feel like I know him and he doesn’t understand my feelings. He doesn’t understand onna gokoro.” [onna = woman; gokoro= heart]
It was like someone was shoving ice picks into my ears. The onnagokoro comment is a standard fallback when men do not behave as expected or desired–perhaps not complying when they ask for the expensive handbag. It drives me nuts, and it was the last straw. After fifteen minutes of this I had no choice but to break the sacred wa and jump into the conversation. They were both very startled by this. I said, “You are both crazy. Your concept of relationships is so boxed and caged it’s as if you read what you’re supposed to believe right out of a magazine.” They mentioned something about being surprised that I speak Japanese, another pat response as if a dog just started talking at them. I continued, “You see, you have it backwards. So many Japanese women put the cart before the horse: you think that if you get married you’ll finally be happy, if only, if only you could just wear the dress and walk down the aisle, then you could truly find bliss. But guess what, marriage is not the path to happiness, it’s exactly the opposite. Happiness is the path that leads to marriage. Only when you are truly happy with someone and you love them to the core of your being can you even broach the idea of marrying that person. Tough concept, I know.”
The enormity of this logic once again brings down the wide-eyed silence. They sat there, blinking.
“Japan’s husband hunters are pursuing relationships the way they might search for jobs: They interview at agencies — dating agencies, in this case. They attend networking parties or just let friends know they are ready for commitment. Iwate started her quest in December by writing New Year’s cards to 170 acquaintances from junior high school classmates to fellow dancers at salsa lessons, asking for help finding an eligible bachelor. Her five co-workers are in on the hunt, introducing each other to potential partners and putting sticky notes on the most useful pages of the “Complete Guide to Marriage Hunting” from “an an” magazine, a weekly publication for women in their 20s and 30s.”
I just about barfed up a blue fin tuna when I read this. The dragnet method of ensnaring your unsuspecting spouse. A guide to marriage hunting? What happened to the process of going out and meeting guys who you feel good being with, just being yourself, letting the progression take its natural course, building and investing in the relationship such that you may be able to spend your lives together?
Gosh, you think that’s maybe that’s how the Greeks do it?
“‘Looks Shouldn’t Matter’
“The issue included articles telling readers that, while it’s acceptable to choose a husband by occupation, ‘looks shouldn’t matter because they’re not essential to leading a married life. You need to consider men you normally wouldn’t date.‘”
This is hilarious–it’s more of that common wisdom regarding marriage or relationships. It reminds me of that email joke that has been circulating that said, “Women, remember this: the average size of a man’s penis is approximately that of a ball point pen, and if you actually feel something ‘down there’ this is known as orgasm.” So in other words, “If he makes you recoil every time you look at him and see him picking his nose, just remember, looks don’t matter when you’re talking about ‘until death do you part,’ and get ready for a sexless existence at the one year mark, this is normal in married life.” If you wouldn’t normally consider someone for a date, there is usually a good reason for it. Trust that instinct and follow it. Paul Gilbert, rock guitar player extraordinaire, is a friend of mine and he gave me some advice while I was looking for a new guitar. I couldn’t decide between the practical hollow body, or the sexy rock star axe. He said, “Choosing the right guitar is like choosing the ideal woman: you have to want to pick it up and play it every time you look at it.” I introduced him to the woman he eventually married and spoke at his wedding, and as a thank you gift, he gave me….a hollow-body. Ha! I love it, though. And I pick it up and play it every time I look at it. So much for “looks don’t matter.” Instead it should read, “If you’re marrying for money and convenience, any old halitosis-meister will fit the bill.”
“It listed character traits by job type: ‘Traders tend to be adventurous and forward-looking; pharmacists conservative and stable; sushi chefs patient and creative.‘”
“Advertising guys are fickle and only like women who can crack a joke, are comfortable in their own skin, and have sex 40+ times per year, so if this is not you, best avoid them.” Finding a mate is like ordering a hamburger. I know some very unadventurous, margarine sandwich traders, and some wildly sexy pharmacists who must be ingesting their products on the sly.
“It also cautioned against playing hard to get: Being coy ‘is strictly forbidden; men want to seriously date women who act natural.‘”
My first issue with this comment is the “men want to seriously date women” part. Ah, but I jest. Actually, with most things Japanese, it’s necessary to read between the lines, and I’m pretty sure I know what they are trying to accomplish with this statement. The “coy” or “hard to get” game is pervasive in Tokyo. Again, it’s a fallback from richer days, when one’s personal attempt to boost Japan off the bottom of the global sex frequency list involved Dom Perignon and Louis Vuitton–use your nether parts as a bargaining chip. I just doesn’t apply anymore, and doing so will keep you home alone on Friday nights.
Let’s say you are a Japanese guy and we put you on a subway. You see any of the women discussed here, and you walk up to her, smile and say, “Hi.” Chances are very good that she will recoil. If she is very shy, she may even change cars at the overtness of your gesture. After all, you are doing “nampa”, a word that is creeping into English that means “pick up.” Oh no! He is trying to pick me up, I had better get away from this aggressive guy who is only after one thing. Put her in Starbucks, and you lean over and attempt to start a conversation with the same result. These are the same women who are desperately trying to find a mate, yet will not have a conversation with someone they have never met unless it’s in a certain context. Such as…
“Business is booming at Green, a marriage-hunting bar in Tokyo’s nightlife district of Roppongi. Men pay 11,340 yen ($115) per visit to have waiters set them up with women, who get in free. The bar is booked solid on weekends, and membership is up 26 percent this year, according to owner Yuta Honda.”
…Green. Paying a hundred bucks to meet women is like paying to breathe air.
I have been told that establishments like this exist, but I am completely baffled that they are able to stay in business. Interesting that saying hello on a subway or in a cafe or elsewhere in public–the organic way people meet–is taboo and most often prompts a reaction like you’re some kind of social misfit who just whipped it out in church. Interesting also that the same woman who just snubbed you will go home, call up her friends, and whine about not having a boyfriend/husband. And on other side of the coin, a guy can drop a hundred bucks to get into a place where some waiters will attempt to hook him up; or a woman will pay thousands of dollars to register at a dating service, yet that’s perfectly acceptable, and obviously preferable.
“‘It sounds like a lot of money, but if you consider that it’s a way to find a husband, it’s a reasonable investment,’” she said while scoping men at Green.”
$3700 for 50 years of chocolate ice cream and afternoon tube, sounds like a pretty sweet deal, who could possibly complain about that?
I had a party last year at my house, and some friends brought their friend, we’ll call her Yuko. I had never met her, so when the convo finally found its way to her, I asked her all the usual questions. Yuko informed me that her husband works for the same company I do, she lives down the island from me, and she is “soooo excited because I just quit my job. I have already looked through the TV guide and planned out exactly what shows I am going to watch every day, and then at 5:00 PM, I’ll go to the supermarket and buy food for dinner, and watch this other show while I’m cooking, and then put the food in the fridge for my husband–he works late, of course–and I’ll watch these other programs while I wait for him to get home.”
“Wow. Sounds great,” I said with Steven Wright-like enthusiasm.
“Yes! Doesn’t it!” she said.
“You are going to rip your eyes out of your head at the two-week mark, a month tops. Your brain will reach a certain putrefaction level and you’ll start to scream out of sheer boredom.” Some enlightened female heads around me started nodding.
One of the girls brought up sex in the characteristically sneaky way that the vagueness of Japanese allows. Yuko informed us that she has not had any “contact” for close to three years. I just about fell out of my chair.
“Oh, well, my mother explained it to me. You see when you become family things change.”
“Family?” I asked. “What does being family have to do with it?”
“Yes, when you become family, then those elements of single life fall away. My mother said we must focus on our responsibilities and just know that there are certain things we no longer have. My mother said it’s just the way it is and it happens to everyone.”
“I think your mom is feeding you a steaming pile of rationalization, Yuko,” I said. “My grandfather reports to me–and everyone else–all too often that he was active until age 75, at which point he was forced to quit, but not due to a lack of desire or interest. Are you aware that babies die without skinship? They will just checkout for no apparent reason. Did you know that premature infants will gain weight 50% faster if the nurse simply strokes their backs for 10 minutes a day? Adults are no different. We need skinship, we need the attention, we need love. It’s part of necessary maintenance, and after all, why are we alive anyway?”
Once again, the silence ensued as gravity brought her reluctantly back down to earth.
About two weeks later, I was on my way home, and I bumped into Yuko. She ran up to me and said, “Chris! Thanks so much!”
“Sure, what for?” I asked.
“I got a job. I start work next week. I’m really excited.”
“Great, good for you,” I said. There was a pause, and she looked around a bit uncomfortably.
“Can I have your phone number?” she asked.
I handed her a business card that bears the same logo as those her husband carries.
SMS: We know that women are expending a great deal of money and effort to be beautiful. How could a woman be beautiful for you?
CD: For me, specifically? Ah, dangerous ground. First, since women obsess over physical beauty (and are ironically told to not care about it in men), I think natural, straight hair is great. I am not a fan of color contacts. When you’re on the subway, don’t stare at yourself in your hand mirror and move that one piece of hair back and forth, back and forth, it really won’t make a difference one way or the other. When you leave your house, you are done. Everyone loves a fit bod. Personality-wise, there are three traits that I absolutely love: confidence, radiant happiness and passion that comes from within her, and a total disregard for what others think of her.
Want to be beautiful? Smile. Smile at people wherever you go. Smile at guys in cafes who you find attractive. Give the pouty seductive looks, and guaranteed, they will talk to you. This is a thousand times better than spending a month’s salary on a glamor shot, or dating service. Learn to listen to your heart, get excited about a person, not their wallet, because as we’ve seen over the last few months, money can evaporate in the blink of an eye, but marriage is (supposed to be) forever. It will also serve you to get rid of the sex-as-bargaining-chip mindset. There is nothing positive about it.
SMS: What would you tell men?
CD: Guys, talk to women. What’s the worst that could happen? You don’t have to pay $100 to have some waiter do your work for you and haul women over. Go to speed dating events, start up a Mixi profile. Go to parties. Throw parties. There is a mountain of information out there on how to talk to women. The biggest consideration in speaking to women in public is context. If you walk up and say hi, you will activate the nampa alarm. However, if you look puzzled and ask for directions or something that is clearly just an innocent question and appropriate for the context, then you may be able to strike up a conversation.
SMS: Any final thoughts?
Throw out the common wisdom. It works like this: you meet, it’s fun. You decided to meet again, and do. It’s fun, and you decide to meet again. Pretty soon, before you know it, you will be dating. It should just sneak up on you. He doesn’t have to say any words of confirmation, you will just KNOW. Imagine that–trusting your heart enough to know when you are falling into a relationship. Just because he hasn’t said those words, confirming your suspicions, doesn’t mean he isn’t serious about you. Plus, words are cheap, anyone can say the words and not mean them. Your heart never lies, it will tell you all you need to know. There are no rules in love. Make your own as you go along. You will keep seeing each other simply because you want to. And then a day will come long when you realize that you could not possibly imagine life without this person. That’s when marriage is appropriate, and never, ever, ever before. Last thing: sex is good. Have more of it, like the Greeks do. The only way you’re going to get there is to drop the whole concept of “transaction”.
Home prices plunge almost 20%
accelerated during the first three months of 2009, according to a report issued Tuesday.
The S&P Case-Shiller National Home Price index, a bellwether of real-estate market direction, plunged a record 19.1% during the quarter compared with the first three months of 2008. That followed an 18.2% drop last quarter.
The Case-Shiller 20-city index dropped 18.7% year-over-year, also a record. It fell 18.5% during the last three months of 2008. This index has plummeted 32.2% from its July 2006 peak and has fallen 32 straight months.
The national index covers almost all homes sold throughout the United States and is reported quarterly while the 20-city index reports sales in 20 major metro areas and represents a cross section of the national market. The 20-city index comes out every month.
“Declines in residential real estate continued at a steady pace into March,” said David Blitzer, chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s in a prepared statement. “All 20 metro areas are still showing negative annual rates of change in average home prices with nine of the metro areas having record annual declines.”
Unreal..how can it fall 18.5% last year, so you lost almost 20% of your home value, and then fall ANOTHER 20% to start this year? So if your home was worth $100, it was then worth $73.50 during the free fall, and now it is worth $58.80??
How can you refinance? There is no equity left, completely wiped out 10 years worth of “your home value will go up 5-8% a year”…
The loss of real estate value is breathtaking when you consider all the loans and equity people took out of their homes for other purposes…it will be a domino effect of massive loan losses at banks.
As you know I am a bear, I am scared now. I think we will retest and break through the lows of the last stock market dive. No one knows for sure, we can only make educated guesses and see what happens…
1. There isn’t enough printed money in the world to cover all the debt being issued for bailouts…ie. We don’t have enough money to pay for this mess on the planet now
2. There has never been a recession that you can just spend your way out of and take on huge debt..this is just what the US consumer did to get to this point, now the government, which is a representation of us, is doing the same.
3. Printing money at these levels will eventually lead massive dilution of the dollar. This will either cause the dollar to become a laughing stock of a currency and/or no longer the safe haven for the world
4. Our debt becomes less appealing with each passing day the printing presses work overtime
5. Real estate has yet to find a bottom (see above)
6. Commercial real estate is the next big problems for banks, followed by consumer loans such as credit cards and car loans.
7. Prime mortgages are starting to default at a staggering pace (see recent WSJ article), these are people with good credit and normal loans.
8. Unemployment, no matter who’s number you believe is, is going up from its already high numbers…see “mass layoffs” article by Tyler Durden
9. Corporate earnings are going to get squashed with a shrinking consumer, making this rally technically unsustainable.
10. North Korea is getting ready to start a Pacific Rim war, not great for news for the emerging markets as well as Japan.
Just my two cents, Dow 6500 in the next 6 months….
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It was interesting the other day to see a Bloomberg article entitled Japanese Women Hunt for Husbands as Refuge from Deeping Slump by Toru Fujioka. It was interesting for me for a few reasons. One, I had been beta testing a new application called The Internet Time Machine
that has an uncanny accuracy of actually predicting the future, or at least, “soon to be hot topics and niches”. One update from the Time Machine that I got a few months ago showed a surge in search terms in Japanese for phrases like “how to find a husband” and “single men to marry”, yet search results were staying stagnant or not keeping up with the new demand. They recommended an ebook in Japanese as a niche way to make money on this surge while no one was noticing.
I was curious to see if this was real developing cultural shift or if it was a blip on the screen in this massive recession. I tracked down Chris Demetrakos, an advertising executive who is single and has been living in Japan for over 15 years. He and his friends advise other single men on dating culture and cultural norms of Japanese Society.
SMS: So Chris, I understand this article fired you up?
Are you kidding? “I am in need of money, so I think I’ll find a guy to support me.” Look at the title:
“…seek husbands as shelter from deepening economic slump…”
The second paragraph:
“I want to get married soon, hopefully by the end of this year,” said Iwate, a 36-year-old employee at a mail-order retailer in Tokyo. “The recession made me realize I’m not going to make as much money as I expected, and I’d be more stable financially if I had double income to fall back on.”
When was the last time you thought to yourself, “Gee, I’d like to be married by the end of this year to someone wealthy so I won’t have to work”?
SMS: Do you encounter this type of woman frequently?
CD: I have this conversation all the time, and it always ends the same. A female friend called me up a while back and asked me to join her and two other friends. I asked the one sitting in the middle, call her Yoko, about herself. After the usual banter, she said, “I want to find a husband.” Here it comes, I thought.
“Ok, so what kind of guy are you hoping to meet?”
She said, “I want to meet a rich guy, someone who has a lot of money,” and laughed a little uncomfortably.
I read an article about some love guru woman named Leil Lowndes who talks about “equity” as it pertains to relationships. The stereotypical buxom-blonde-meets-70-year-old-uber-rich-guy is the quintessential example. Each party brings something the other desires to the relationship, so the “transaction” ends up being somewhat equal. In the case of the gentlemen, he gets the ultra sexy trophy wife/girlfriend; and for the lady, she gets access to his pile of money. However, as I sat there and listened to Yoko prattle on about wanting to be with a rich guy, I wondered exactly what it was she would be bringing to the table for her future Mr. Wallet. Here comes that mindset of female-as-prize, or I have the vagina, so that’s my contribution and it automatically qualifies me. That may have worked in the past, but welcome to the New Economy.
I said, “Ok, so a banker or trader would be ideal, right?”
“Yes, someone like that would be great!” she responded, thinking maybe I was considering an introduction.
“So, as long as he’s a nice guy, you don’t really care what he’s like as long as he’s rich?”
“Yes, that’s right,” she said.
I switched gears. I said, “There’s a guy I know who loves stewardesses. He said he wants to marry one because he loves the uniform, and thinks it’s the sexiest thing ever. I asked him what he would do if he married a stewardess and she quit her job, relinquishing her uniform. He said that he would divorce her.” There were moans and jeers all around the table. They called him shallow and said they couldn’t believe such a guy exists. Table set, here comes the beef. I said, “What you’re saying isn’t much different from that guy. What if I had introduced you to my friend at Lehman Brothers a year ago? You would have done back flips about the prospect of spending his fat trader salary, and life would have been great for a few months, but then the global meltdown happened and the rug got pulled out from under the dream. What then? Now he is a salaryman, making a standard wage simply because that’s all that’s out there for him. And you know what? Since you did not marry for love, since you married for money, for convenience, you are left wondering what is in it for you. Maybe you’re thinking about divorce. Sound any different from the stewardess-lover? Nope.”
Silence. She had a look on her face like none of this had ever occurred to her.
SMS: How did this female-as-prize mindset come about?
CD: I think it happened during the bubble. There was cash growing on trees back then, and it was the era of girls dancing sans panties on the platforms at Juliana’s Tokyo. Fat city. Generally speaking, it was a seller’s market at that time, and it became customary for women to expect men to proffer up the good times and spoils if women were to accede to any post-date activity. Today, we’re dealing with the daughters of these women, young ladies who were socialized by those in this mindset.
There is a young woman who lives in the same building as I do. I met her for the first time a few years ago when she was still in high school, and now she is 19 and in college. She speaks three languages, is refreshingly peppy and internationally minded. She said she wanted to talk to me about university and her future to get a different perspective from what she is being told by all her Japanese advisors. We ended up going out to eat sushi, and she said, “My mom said to make sure that you are paying and told me to eat a lot.”
“Excuse me?!” I said.
“Yeah, mom said to eat a lot since you are paying.”
“Are you kidding me? Your mom needs a lesson in manners,” I said.
But the more I thought about it, I realized that this girl who was born in 1989–right at the end of the bubble era. Her mom was part of a group that was accustomed to milking guys for gorgeous nights out, lavish experiences, for material goods, and they used sex as a carrot, a bargaining chip. Now those women are teaching their daughters what they know and it’s completely anachronistic. The world changed under their noses while they were raising their kids.
SMS: Aren’t these women more an exception than the rule?
CD: That’s a good question. I am reluctant to even venture a guess at a percentage, but given Bloomberg is writing about them, and these marriage agencies are posting big numbers, they obviously exist in significant numbers. I run into them all the time. But you’re right, they are only a certain group, and do not account for the whole. I know some very hip, very cultured women. Most of them have spent time overseas, though. As I mentioned, I am in the ad industry, and pretty much everything we do sits on some kind of consumer insight study. My curiosity is piqued about this group of women the Bloomberg article talks about.
SMS: What else about the article struck a chord with you?
CD: Well, let’s take a look.
“Financial concerns are a major reason for the increase in marriage-hunting,” said Toshihiro Nagahama, chief economist at Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute in Tokyo. “Women are motivated more than ever to find a financially sound partner.”
Ever wonder what it is men are “motivated more than ever” to find? Another sound bite I hear a lot is that men are basically animals, and they are “only after one thing.” That makes life really easy, doesn’t it? If men are sex-crazed, base, overtime-working animals, then the equation is simple: keep them well fed above and below the belt, and all will be well. But it doesn’t happen that way. Have you seen that study about frequency of sex in various countries around the world?
SMS: Heard of it, yes.
CD: Durex, the condom company, did the survey, I believe it was in 2003. Greek people were sharing the love and the body fluids the most at something like 115 times per year, while the Japanese came last (no pun intended…perhaps) at 37 times per year. That is an average, so half the people are below that figure. I believe the DSM-IV defines a couple as “sexless” at a frequency of twice a month, or 24 times per year, so “sexless” is only a hair south of the national average.
If sex is so infrequent, what happened to the animal theory? I guess that went out the window.
“I know women before my generation worked so hard and pursued their careers so they could prove they’re just as good as men,” said Reiko Kubo, 25, who bought a good-luck charm at Tokyo Daijingu shrine. “They didn’t have to depend on men and that’s cool, but it’s not the path I want to follow.”
So in other words, “I want to depend on a man.” My question for Reiko Kubo is, “Why on earth would marry a guy just so you can depend on him? What happened to falling in love? What happens when you have to communicate and solve problems together and think about pursuing dreams? Do you have any dreams, Reiko?” Maybe I’m old fashioned. It seems absolutely insane to marry someone for practicality, and feel nothing. Think that might have something to do with the results of the sex survey?
SMS: Are some women thinking that marriage will make them happy?
CD: EXACTLY!
I was at Starbucks recently with a friend who was enthralled in a game on my phone, so I was left to endure the conversation that was happening to my right. Across from me was the married one. Next to me was the single one. Married was talking a mile a minute, spewing forth the same old hackneyed lines about how marriage changes everything, and there is no other choice but to suck it up and accept it. Single nodded in forlorn, unchallenging acceptance of every word. Married mentioned the dreaded one-year mark, when the big changes occur. Single agreed, “Yes, yes, you’re right. I have been with my boyfriend for one year now, and the love-love-talk has stopped.” She pouted.
Married: “You have to give up stimulation in favor of stability.”
Single: “Yes, I think I would much rather have stability, but I’m bored in the relationship. I don’t really feel like I know him and he doesn’t understand my feelings. He doesn’t understand onna gokoro.” [onna = woman; gokoro= heart]
It was like someone was shoving ice picks into my ears. The onnagokoro comment is a standard fallback when men do not behave as expected or desired–perhaps not complying when they ask for the expensive handbag. It drives me nuts, and it was the last straw. After fifteen minutes of this I had no choice but to break the sacred wa and jump into the conversation. They were both very startled by this. I said, “You are both crazy. Your concept of relationships is so boxed and caged it’s as if you read what you’re supposed to believe right out of a magazine.” They mentioned something about being surprised that I speak Japanese, another pat response as if a dog just started talking at them. I continued, “You see, you have it backwards. So many Japanese women put the cart before the horse: you think that if you get married you’ll finally be happy, if only, if only you could just wear the dress and walk down the aisle, then you could truly find bliss. But guess what, marriage is not the path to happiness, it’s exactly the opposite. Happiness is the path that leads to marriage. Only when you are truly happy with someone and you love them to the core of your being can you even broach the idea of marrying that person. Tough concept, I know.”
The enormity of this logic once again brings down the wide-eyed silence. They sat there, blinking.
“Japan’s husband hunters are pursuing relationships the way they might search for jobs: They interview at agencies — dating agencies, in this case. They attend networking parties or just let friends know they are ready for commitment. Iwate started her quest in December by writing New Year’s cards to 170 acquaintances from junior high school classmates to fellow dancers at salsa lessons, asking for help finding an eligible bachelor. Her five co-workers are in on the hunt, introducing each other to potential partners and putting sticky notes on the most useful pages of the “Complete Guide to Marriage Hunting” from “an an” magazine, a weekly publication for women in their 20s and 30s.”
I just about barfed up a blue fin tuna when I read this. The dragnet method of ensnaring your unsuspecting spouse. A guide to marriage hunting? What happened to the process of going out and meeting guys who you feel good being with, just being yourself, letting the progression take its natural course, building and investing in the relationship such that you may be able to spend your lives together?
Gosh, you think that’s maybe that’s how the Greeks do it?
“‘Looks Shouldn’t Matter’
“The issue included articles telling readers that, while it’s acceptable to choose a husband by occupation, ‘looks shouldn’t matter because they’re not essential to leading a married life. You need to consider men you normally wouldn’t date.‘”
This is hilarious–it’s more of that common wisdom regarding marriage or relationships. It reminds me of that email joke that has been circulating that said, “Women, remember this: the average size of a man’s penis is approximately that of a ball point pen, and if you actually feel something ‘down there’ this is known as orgasm.” So in other words, “If he makes you recoil every time you look at him and see him picking his nose, just remember, looks don’t matter when you’re talking about ‘until death do you part,’ and get ready for a sexless existence at the one year mark, this is normal in married life.” If you wouldn’t normally consider someone for a date, there is usually a good reason for it. Trust that instinct and follow it. Paul Gilbert, rock guitar player extraordinaire, is a friend of mine and he gave me some advice while I was looking for a new guitar. I couldn’t decide between the practical hollow body, or the sexy rock star axe. He said, “Choosing the right guitar is like choosing the ideal woman: you have to want to pick it up and play it every time you look at it.” I introduced him to the woman he eventually married and spoke at his wedding, and as a thank you gift, he gave me….a hollow-body. Ha! I love it, though. And I pick it up and play it every time I look at it. So much for “looks don’t matter.” Instead it should read, “If you’re marrying for money and convenience, any old halitosis-meister will fit the bill.”
“It listed character traits by job type: ‘Traders tend to be adventurous and forward-looking; pharmacists conservative and stable; sushi chefs patient and creative.‘”
“Advertising guys are fickle and only like women who can crack a joke, are comfortable in their own skin, and have sex 40+ times per year, so if this is not you, best avoid them.” Finding a mate is like ordering a hamburger. I know some very unadventurous, margarine sandwich traders, and some wildly sexy pharmacists who must be ingesting their products on the sly.
“It also cautioned against playing hard to get: Being coy ‘is strictly forbidden; men want to seriously date women who act natural.‘”
My first issue with this comment is the “men want to seriously date women” part. Ah, but I jest. Actually, with most things Japanese, it’s necessary to read between the lines, and I’m pretty sure I know what they are trying to accomplish with this statement. The “coy” or “hard to get” game is pervasive in Tokyo. Again, it’s a fallback from richer days, when one’s personal attempt to boost Japan off the bottom of the global sex frequency list involved Dom Perignon and Louis Vuitton–use your nether parts as a bargaining chip. I just doesn’t apply anymore, and doing so will keep you home alone on Friday nights.
Let’s say you are a Japanese guy and we put you on a subway. You see any of the women discussed here, and you walk up to her, smile and say, “Hi.” Chances are very good that she will recoil. If she is very shy, she may even change cars at the overtness of your gesture. After all, you are doing “nampa”, a word that is creeping into English that means “pick up.” Oh no! He is trying to pick me up, I had better get away from this aggressive guy who is only after one thing. Put her in Starbucks, and you lean over and attempt to start a conversation with the same result. These are the same women who are desperately trying to find a mate, yet will not have a conversation with someone they have never met unless it’s in a certain context. Such as…
“Business is booming at Green, a marriage-hunting bar in Tokyo’s nightlife district of Roppongi. Men pay 11,340 yen ($115) per visit to have waiters set them up with women, who get in free. The bar is booked solid on weekends, and membership is up 26 percent this year, according to owner Yuta Honda.”
…Green. Paying a hundred bucks to meet women is like paying to breathe air.
I have been told that establishments like this exist, but I am completely baffled that they are able to stay in business. Interesting that saying hello on a subway or in a cafe or elsewhere in public–the organic way people meet–is taboo and most often prompts a reaction like you’re some kind of social misfit who just whipped it out in church. Interesting also that the same woman who just snubbed you will go home, call up her friends, and whine about not having a boyfriend/husband. And on other side of the coin, a guy can drop a hundred bucks to get into a place where some waiters will attempt to hook him up; or a woman will pay thousands of dollars to register at a dating service, yet that’s perfectly acceptable, and obviously preferable.
“‘It sounds like a lot of money, but if you consider that it’s a way to find a husband, it’s a reasonable investment,’” she said while scoping men at Green.”
$3700 for 50 years of chocolate ice cream and afternoon tube, sounds like a pretty sweet deal, who could possibly complain about that?
I had a party last year at my house, and some friends brought their friend, we’ll call her Yuko. I had never met her, so when the convo finally found its way to her, I asked her all the usual questions. Yuko informed me that her husband works for the same company I do, she lives down the island from me, and she is “soooo excited because I just quit my job. I have already looked through the TV guide and planned out exactly what shows I am going to watch every day, and then at 5:00 PM, I’ll go to the supermarket and buy food for dinner, and watch this other show while I’m cooking, and then put the food in the fridge for my husband–he works late, of course–and I’ll watch these other programs while I wait for him to get home.”
“Wow. Sounds great,” I said with Steven Wright-like enthusiasm.
“Yes! Doesn’t it!” she said.
“You are going to rip your eyes out of your head at the two-week mark, a month tops. Your brain will reach a certain putrefaction level and you’ll start to scream out of sheer boredom.” Some enlightened female heads around me started nodding.
One of the girls brought up sex in the characteristically sneaky way that the vagueness of Japanese allows. Yuko informed us that she has not had any “contact” for close to three years. I just about fell out of my chair.
“Oh, well, my mother explained it to me. You see when you become family things change.”
“Family?” I asked. “What does being family have to do with it?”
“Yes, when you become family, then those elements of single life fall away. My mother said we must focus on our responsibilities and just know that there are certain things we no longer have. My mother said it’s just the way it is and it happens to everyone.”
“I think your mom is feeding you a steaming pile of rationalization, Yuko,” I said. “My grandfather reports to me–and everyone else–all too often that he was active until age 75, at which point he was forced to quit, but not due to a lack of desire or interest. Are you aware that babies die without skinship? They will just checkout for no apparent reason. Did you know that premature infants will gain weight 50% faster if the nurse simply strokes their backs for 10 minutes a day? Adults are no different. We need skinship, we need the attention, we need love. It’s part of necessary maintenance, and after all, why are we alive anyway?”
Once again, the silence ensued as gravity brought her reluctantly back down to earth.
About two weeks later, I was on my way home, and I bumped into Yuko. She ran up to me and said, “Chris! Thanks so much!”
“Sure, what for?” I asked.
“I got a job. I start work next week. I’m really excited.”
“Great, good for you,” I said. There was a pause, and she looked around a bit uncomfortably.
“Can I have your phone number?” she asked.
I handed her a business card that bears the same logo as those her husband carries.
SMS: We know that women are expending a great deal of money and effort to be beautiful. How could a woman be beautiful for you?
CD: For me, specifically? Ah, dangerous ground. First, since women obsess over physical beauty (and are ironically told to not care about it in men), I think natural, straight hair is great. I am not a fan of color contacts. When you’re on the subway, don’t stare at yourself in your hand mirror and move that one piece of hair back and forth, back and forth, it really won’t make a difference one way or the other. When you leave your house, you are done. Everyone loves a fit bod. Personality-wise, there are three traits that I absolutely love: confidence, radiant happiness and passion that comes from within her, and a total disregard for what others think of her.
Want to be beautiful? Smile. Smile at people wherever you go. Smile at guys in cafes who you find attractive. Give the pouty seductive looks, and guaranteed, they will talk to you. This is a thousand times better than spending a month’s salary on a glamor shot, or dating service. Learn to listen to your heart, get excited about a person, not their wallet, because as we’ve seen over the last few months, money can evaporate in the blink of an eye, but marriage is (supposed to be) forever. It will also serve you to get rid of the sex-as-bargaining-chip mindset. There is nothing positive about it.
SMS: What would you tell men?
CD: Guys, talk to women. What’s the worst that could happen? You don’t have to pay $100 to have some waiter do your work for you and haul women over. Go to speed dating events, start up a Mixi profile. Go to parties. Throw parties. There is a mountain of information out there on how to talk to women. The biggest consideration in speaking to women in public is context. If you walk up and say hi, you will activate the nampa alarm. However, if you look puzzled and ask for directions or something that is clearly just an innocent question and appropriate for the context, then you may be able to strike up a conversation.
SMS: Any final thoughts?
Throw out the common wisdom. It works like this: you meet, it’s fun. You decided to meet again, and do. It’s fun, and you decide to meet again. Pretty soon, before you know it, you will be dating. It should just sneak up on you. He doesn’t have to say any words of confirmation, you will just KNOW. Imagine that–trusting your heart enough to know when you are falling into a relationship. Just because he hasn’t said those words, confirming your suspicions, doesn’t mean he isn’t serious about you. Plus, words are cheap, anyone can say the words and not mean them. Your heart never lies, it will tell you all you need to know. There are no rules in love. Make your own as you go along. You will keep seeing each other simply because you want to. And then a day will come long when you realize that you could not possibly imagine life without this person. That’s when marriage is appropriate, and never, ever, ever before. Last thing: sex is good. Have more of it, like the Greeks do. The only way you’re going to get there is to drop the whole concept of “transaction”.
When I usually see something like this I run for the hills and immediately expect a Web 2.0 long tail sales page to pop up telling me about a “loophole in Google” or “a Facebook backdoor secret”.
So I was pretty shocked when I came across the following article on CNBC, buried in a slew of headlines.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/29549920
Investors such as Jon Najarian are hopeful that stocks could soar next week. They say we could see an explosion to the upside after a meeting scheduled for March 12th.
On that date, a House financial services subcommittee plans a hearing on mark-to-market accounting rules, which have been blamed for forcing banks to report billions of dollars in write-downs.
Karen Finerman has long been an advocate of putting these rules on hiatus for a while and “letting the banks breathe.”
If that meeting results in the government relaxing mark-to-market rules, optionMonster Jon Najarian thinks the stock market could explode. On Wednesday he told us, “if the government relaxes mark-to-market for 12 to 18 months you could see financials move 100% in a matter of hours.”
And he went on to say, “In fact, I hope you’ll replay the soundbite because if the government relaxes mark-to-market accounting a number of banks stocks will be unbelievable values at these levels.”
Background
U.S. industry groups have urged the SEC and FASB to significantly alter or suspend the accounting rule, saying it is undermining the government’s multibillion-dollar effort to stabilize the financial sector.
Mark-to-market accounting requires assets to be valued at current market prices. Some banks say it forces them to mark down assets to artificially low prices in the current financial crisis, even when banks intend to hold the assets past the current reporting period.
What’s the trade?
Jon Najarian suggests a higher risk play – he suggests long the Financial Bull 3x ETF [FAS 2.64 -0.11 (-4%) ] which is triple long ahead of the mark-to-market hearing.
Now, I didn’t bring up this point to create a “CNBC is terrible and don’t watch it” kind of conversation. I was more interested in the idea behind it and why it isn’t the lead story on every news site in the world.
1. This seem to me like an almost “knowable” outcome. The members of the house service committee must be public knowledge. These senators must have given speeches, interviews, and public statements about the current economic crisis, in fact, I bet alot of them, over the last few months. If you looked at the transcripts of these statements it must be pretty evident how each member stands on financial topics, and mark to market acounting. This can either be a direct quote or inferred based on other comment and opinions on the financial crisis.
2. With the use of options, you could make tens of millions of dollars. Image controlling a few hundred thousand shares of GS while making a bet it will double in 48 hours.
If the market is efficient, then this hearing is already known about and is already priced into the market. That either means no one expect much to come of it, or there must be a few more steps to that have to happen for this event to come to fruition.
I am not esposing that we all ride FAS to our financial dreams, but I find the article more of interesting talking point. It plays on the “financial dream” that we can know the future of massive stock moves ahead of time and play them perfectly. The use of leverage in options makes it even more enticing as we can control chuncks of shares for pennies on the dollar.
What do people think of the upcoming hearing and the movement of stocks based on the theory that Najarian lays out? If you were a Vegas bookmaker, or offshore bookmaker for that matter, what are the odds you would put on this type of scenario playing out and people being caught off guard?
There is a doomsday clock that hangs at the University of Chicago that is meant to show how close we are to the end of the world. It doesn’t move much. In fact, it was moved two minutes closer to midnight in January of 2007. Since then we have had no movement and we now stand at 5 minutes before midnight, or the expected end of the world.
Why do I bring this up? Until recently I would have put the chance of Obama
not being re-elected at about the same chance the doomsday clock hits midnight in the next 4 years. After reading the Obama “tax the wealthy” plans, I am moving up the Obama Doomsday Clock by 1 minute.
Let me digress, I have a friendly banter with a Wall Street professional and I have always argued that there is a 99% chance that Obama will be re-elected in 4 years. One, he is the most charasmatic speaker of our generation, if not a few generations. His speech patterns and pauses are mesmorizing and could sell you just about anything. Two, he is inheriting the biggest financial and economical disaster in 70 years. Why is this good? All he has to do in the next four years is just STOP the decline. He doesn’t have to turn anything even around. He just has to stop the bleeding. Get unemployement to stop RISING, and get housing to find a BOTTOM, somewhere, anywhere. That’s it. His re-election is sealed with “I have stopped the greatest disaster in the last 100 years and I can make this country turn around if you give me 4 more years”. Done. He is in.
“Not so fast my friend.” as Lee Corso, ESPN football commentor would say. After reading his budget plans, I was shocked to see how much he is attacking the wealthy. It is is one thing to raise their taxes, but I read in disbelief how mortgage interest will no longer be a tax deduction and how there will no longer be a tax deduction for charitable contributions. As if the charities weren’t hit hard enough by this market and Maddoff, now no tax deduction for contributions? So, we are going to rely on the good hearts of the super wealthy to give large amounts with NO financial gain, just an altruistic pat on the back? Wow, talk about robbing Paul to pay Peter, or better yet, robbing St. Peter to pay Uncle Sam.
Taking the mortgage interest off the table is also just as questionable. We need a housing bottom, we need to encourge wealthy and not-as-wealthy people to pay their mortgages and buy homes, and now you take away the tax deduction for mortgage interest. How is this helping to find a housing bottom? You just made mortgages a whole lot more unattractive to people that have a decent net worth and that can spend some money and get things moving.
I know have to scale my Obama Re-Election Clock back to 92% from its current 99%. Why? Because 5% of the population controls 95% of the wealth in this country and Obama just declared war on them. Like it or not, money equals power in our society. The more money you have, the more power and influence people give you, like it or not. I am not here to start a moral debate over money, power, and influence, but lets just say if you are a big donor to your local and State politicians and you request a phone call with them, they are going to call you back. If you start russling the feathers of enough wealthy people with power and with powerful connections, there tends to be a backlash of somekind down the road.
This opens the door a crack for someone like Mitt Romney to step up in 2012. You can see the slogan as “I ran successful corporations, and American is a big corporation. We need a business and economic leader like myself to turn this country around”. Is it a dead heat right now? No way. Again, all Obama has to do is STOP THE BLEEDINGWalled In downloaddownload Magicians dvd
They say in life to never bite the hand that feeds you (or your government in this case) and lets just say Obama has nibbled on a finger. If he attacks the rest of the hand don’t be surprised to see the Republicans start a “he just doesn’t have the experince to get us out of this” conversation in 24 months, and to boast of their big business prowness.
I am not sure if anyone read the transcript of Paul Volker’s recent speech in Toronto. What? Oh, you have a life, okay then…check out this paragraph.
Somehow I just don’t see Grandpa taking the kidos to the park and pushing them on the swing.
“A year or so ago, my daughter had seen something in the paper, some disparaging remarks I had made about financial engineering. She sent it to my grandson, who normally didn’t communicate with me very much. He sent me an email, “Grandpa, don’t blame it on us! We were just following the orders we were getting from our bosses.” The only thing I could do was send him back an email, “I will not accept the Nuremberg excuse.”The Grudge 3 releaseSteel City full movieRaging Sharks psp
I am sure you have heard of the term “urban legends”, or at least seen the movie based upon superstition and coincidence. Urban legends go something like this, “If you put alka-seltzer in your bird seed and a bird eats it, his stomach will explode” or “If you go past the graveyard on the night that so and so died, the light will flicker 3 times”. Fear and the “unexplainable” factor make for a juicy urban legend. Since our investment decisions are driven by either fear (running for safety) or greed (joining the bull run), lets take a look at some of the urban legends on the Street today.
1. China and other foreign buyers will stop buying US dominated government bonds, hence sending us into The Next Great Depression. (Play spooky music here). The funny part here is that China increased its purchases of U.S. Treasuries last year by 46 percent to $696.2 billion. Guess what? We are stuck with each other now. The biggest net exporter in the history of the world is married to the biggest consumer nation in the history of the world. China would be cutting off its nose despite its face if they stopped supporting US government debt. That is why Fang Shangpu, deputy director at the State Administration for Foreign Exchange, told a press conference in Beijing today. “We hope countries whose currencies are the main holdings in our international reserves will take effective measures to cope with the financial crisis. They should work to maintain economic and financial stability, and protect the interests and confidence of investors.” This is basically screaming “Holy Smokes, we are in deep here, you scratch my back and I will scratch your back. You cover us for what we already own and we won’t pull the rug out on you.” This is a classic win-win situation or lose-lose situation, and neither party wants the lose-lose outcome.
The other part is the fear monger factor. If the end of the world is just around the corner, and you had to bet on one country surviving and someday prospering, what country would it be? When push comes to shove, and you need to make sure you at least get your money back so that you can live to fight another day, US government debt is what the world will buy with the thinking being “If the US government goes under, I think we have bigger problems then our investments”. If the end of the world happens, do you want to be long the Euro? How about government bonds from Vietnam or Brazil? If safety is of the utmost importance, as it will be if the Dow hits 5000, the world will still turn to the US government as safest play since they will be the last man standing if we turn into Planet of the Apes, enormous debt and all. You will see Charlton Heston gazing at a buried Statue of Liberty, kneeling in wet sand screaming, “Damn you apes, what have you done!! And by the way, what is the 30 year trading at!!???”
2. The US financial systems, and the financial systems the world, are insolvent. The interesting part of this one is the sentence that is never said after this sentence. “What does that mean, I mean, in real life?” Do we wake up one day and all the banks are closed or bankrupt? All our money on deposit is gone or only insured up to $100,000? Do people go from millionaires to hundred-thousandaires?
Even if we get clobbered on real estate and deleveraging for years, there will always be banks. Just like there will always be a police force. Banks and police are part of keeping law and order, just in different terms. Governments will take on massive debt and deal with inflation before they allow the world wide banking system to go belly up. Is it fair to the taxpayer? No. Will some rich bankers make a killing? Yes. Are the consequences of not bailing out banks far greater than the alternative? Yes! Call it the IOU bank, the World Bad Bank, the Badass Bank of the Word, we will create it, we will fund it, and life will go on.
How do we know this is a headline urban legend? Google is trading at $351 and Apple, without Steve Jobs, is trading at $95. Really? So we are about to experience the world-wide financial meltdown to end all meltdowns, and two tech companies that are completely non-essential to human survival are finding buyers to drive them up. One company makes high-end, non-essential, although very nice, gadgets, and they are up almost 20% since their November lows? The other, the advertiser of last resort, caught in the biggest consumer and retail pullback of 5 generations, is up 40% since its November lows? How can we be in the biggest consumer driven recession and the biggest advertising network in the world is up 40% in 90 odd days? Which begs the question, are people using their IPHONES to search Google for the best deals on rifles, bread, and clean water, as they prepare for the end of the world?
3. Times are horrific, this is the next Great Depression. Do you know how this is an urban legend? Check out every story about unemployment, contracting GDP, or any other bad news out there and you will see a common theme. They all either go back to 1981 or 1970. “This is the worst report since 1981” or “This is the lowest level for this since the 1970s!” Really? The country was founded in 1776, and we have to go back a whooping 20 or 30 years to find when times were this bad? I am not saying things are good, or aren’t going to get worse, but does a generational changing recession only go back to 1970? I checked and every Super Bowl and World Series was played in the 1970s. I even found out Disney World was open everyday it was suppose to be open in the 1970s. I don’t remember the world ending then. I remember gas lines, license plates, stagflation, and tough times, but no shot guns and food riots. The only thing I can find that tells me we are pricing in for the next Great Depression is the corporate bond default rate. I guess that is why everyone is piling into corporate bonds now, getting ready for some deflation and stagflation.
In conclusion, don’t get carried away by headlines and urban legends. They are made to sell newspapers, get you to click your mouse, or open an email. Check out Bob Doll, vice president of Blackrock, and his cautiously optimistic views. Check out Warren Buffett loading up on fixed income type convertibles of US companies. No gold or US treasuries in his latest Berkshire snapshot, no end of the world prognostication from the Oracle of Omaha. As Jamie Dimon said recently, “This country has had big problems before. This is not the first,” he said. “If we face them head-on and look at the full set of problems that were made and created, we have real solutions and policies for them, we will reform like we have in the past and we will move on like we have in the past. Hopefully that will be this year, later this year, as opposed to sometime in 2010, but we don’t know.”
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